Strikeforce: Fedor vs Rogers analysis
Posted: Wednesday, November 04, 2009
by Alex Leyberman
http://mmalogic.net
note:(a guideline to understanding the numbers beside fighters names can be found at the bottom)
The event will take place on Saturday November 7, 2009 at the Sears Center in Hoffman Estates, IL and will be broadcast live on CBS
Fedor_Emelianenko -500 VS Brett Rogers +350
Fedor Emelianenko is considered to be one of the best mixed martial arts fighters on the planet. Fedor holds an impressive 30-1 record, with the single loss coming by way of stoppage due to a cut.
Fedor Emelianenko should have a definitive advantage. Fedor is a seasoned veteran with a wealth of experience and sage like wisdom. However, Fedor's biggest advantage would be to utilize sambo and wrestling to get this fight to ground and use his vastly superior jiu jitsu skills. Brett Rogers greatest chance of pulling of a victory would be to use his speed and power to catch Fedor with his heavy hands. If Rogers has shown us anything it's that he has the power to knock out a fighter who has more experience, just ask Andrei Arlovski.
This will be Fedor's first time fighting in a cage but it should not be much of a factor. Rogers might look to set a fast past a fluster Emelianenko in the early minutes but will not be able to keep the paste for too long. At +350 one could consider laying down a few dollars on Brett Rogers but at this point in time would anyone really bet against Fedor.
I picks Fedor Emelianenko to win.
Jake Shields -300 VS Jason "mayhem" Miller+220
Jake Shield holds a record of 23-4-1 in his mixed martial arts career with 10 of his wins coming by submission. In a recent interview Jake stated that his striking abilities are overlooked because of his amazing ground skills. Yet, Jake has no illusion as to why he's been successful in his career and plans on utilizing his wrestling and black belt level brazilian jiu jitsu to win over Jason Miller.
Host of MTV's bully beatdown and "monkey cult" leader, Jason Miller has a 22-6-1 record with 13 wins by submission. Mayhem has a similar attributes to his opponent but should have a slight advantage in striking. Jason has great jiu-jitsu and ground defense as he has previously competed against Ronaldo Souza, who has some of the best jiu-jitsu in all of mixed martial arts and didn't get submitted.
This should be a close fight that goes to a decision. As this fight will most likely be contested on the ground it is difficult to say who will have the distinct advantage. This fight might come down to conditioning and Jake could have the edge there, but Jason has always come in shape for his fights. At +220 I would have to pick Jason Miller as the underdog to win.
I picks Jason Miller to win.
Gegard Mousasi -500 VS Thierry_Sokoudjou +350
Gegard Mousasi (22-6-1) is the current Strikeforce Light Heavyweight Champion. Gegard won the title after defeating a dangerous opponent in Renato Sobral. The fight against Sokodjou will present Mousuasi with a win win situation as this will be a non-title fight and a chance for Gegard to establish a bigger following amongst mixed martial arts fans.
When Remeau Thierry Sokodjou(7-4-0) first appeared on the scene in 2006, many considered him to be a top contender in the light heavyweight division. Remeau Sokojou is undoubtedly talented and athletically gifted but doesn't seem to posses the skills necessary to compete at the upper levels of mixed martial arts world.
Gegard will enjoy an advantage in striking and on the ground and this should be an easy win for the Armenian born fighter. For Remeau Sokojou to win he would have to pull of a surprise K.O which is unlikely against a striker of Mosusasi's caliber. However, at -500 there is not much value on Gegard Mousasi.
I picks Gegard Mousasi to win.
Fabricio Werdum -165 VS Antonio Silva +135
Fabricio Werdum (12-4-1) was once a contender in the UFC's heavyweight division, until Junior dos Santos snapped Fabricio's win streak with an impressive knock-out. Werdum found himself cut from the UFC and signed with Strikeforce, where he defeated Mike Kyle in his first fight with the organization. Fabricio is a well rounded mixed martial arts fighter with impressive wins over some big names.
Antonio Silva(13-1) is a very big heavyweight with solid striking and jiu-jitsu. Antonio's only loss to date is a controversial early stoppage against Eric Pele at BodogFights USA VS Russian in 2006. Silva's biggest wins have been over Ricco Rodriguez and Justin Eiler where he was crowned EliteXC's first heavyweight champion.
This is an intriguing match up as both fighters can strike and both have excellent ground skills. The advantage in striking goes to Silva and the slight edge on the ground to Werdum. For this fight I'm going with the underdog Antonio Silva at +135.
I picks Antonio Silva.
Sumarry:
With the odds on a lot of fights being unfavorable, it might be wise to pick underdogs that have the best chance of winning.
MMALOGIC.NET recommends picks on:
Jason Miller
Antonio Silva.
A basic break breakdown to understanding lines is as follows:
Fighter A -120
Fighter B +130
What the lines show is that fighter A is the favorite and fighter B is the under-dog. At -120 you would have to bet $120 on Fighter A to win $100. Conversely you would have to bet $100 on Fighter B to win $130.
Thank you for reading and good luck.
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